Comparing Patterns of Default Among Prime and Subprime Mortgages

Comparing Patterns of Default Among Prime and Subprime Mortgages
By:Gene Amromin
Published on 2010-01 by DIANE Publishing



This article compares default patterns among prime and subprime mortgages, analyzes the factors correlated with default, and examines how forecasts of defaults are affected by alternative assumptions about trends in home prices. The authors find that extremely pessimistic forecasts of home price appreciation could have generated predictions of subprime defaults that were closer to the actual default experience for loans originated in 2006 and 2007. However, for prime loans one would have also had to anticipate that defaults would become much more sensitive to home prices. Tables and graphs.

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